Extended Data Fig. 1: Schematic overview of models and data sources.

A schematic overview of how abiotic and biotic models and data sources are linked to quantify the impact of future emission scenarios on habitat and population size loss of shorebirds. Models (black rectangles) are parameterized and initialized (black arrows) using various data sources (white squares) Model output of a submodel, can feed into another submodel (black arrows) and ultimately be sued to quantify the response variable of interest (red triangles; habitat and population size loss). Specifically: greenhouse gas emission scenarios are translated into sea level rise using IPCC scenarios spatially downscaled to the situation of the Netherlands. Sea levels further vary among and within years by drawing from historical intra- and interannual variability in water levels (reflecting weather variability and tidal cycles) and from a lunar nodal cycle model⁵². Marsh elevation changes over time due to accretion from sedimentation during flooding (geomorphological model; on island A there is additional deep soil subsidence from gas mining), which together with sea level rise determines habitat loss (that is proportion of habitat submerging below mean high tide). Elevation and sea-level dynamics together determine the relative elevation of the marsh and combined with a flooding model–describing the amplification and attenuation of water along creeks and the marsh plane respectively—, determines the flooding risk at each location. Biotic models for habitat and nest-site selection determine the nesting locations of birds and thereby their flooding pattern. Finally, the flooding level during the breeding season affects the number of offspring produced each year and this birth rate feeds into a population dynamical model that projects changes in population size. Key abiotic and biotic feedback loops (dashed arrows) are (i) higher flooding levels/frequencies leading to higher sediment accretion of marshes and the resulting vertical growth lowers future flooding risk and (ii) lower reproduction due to more frequent flooding leading to fewer birds selecting these (low) territories for settlement, buffering future flooding impact on nests success.