Fig. 1: Transient evolution of cumulative heat and carbon uptake.

a–d, The global (black line), northern ocean (red line) and Southern Ocean (blue line) uptakes for heat (left column) and carbon (right) over the historical period from 1850 to 2014 including all forcings (17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon) (a), single radiative forcing experiments over the historical period with either only greenhouse gases (b) or aerosols (five CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and five models with single ensembles for carbon) (c) and future projections following the SSP2-4.5 scenario from 2015 to 2100 from a subset of CMIP6 models (10 for heat and 17 for carbon) (d). The model mean and standard deviation are denoted by the lines and shading, and northern oceans and Southern Ocean domains defined as north of 30° N and south of 30° S, respectively.