Fig. 3: Historical and future changes in radiative forcing and heat and carbon uptake.

a–d, Maps of the temporal change in the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (W m⁻²), planetary heat uptake (W m⁻²), surface ocean heat uptake (W m⁻²) and surface ocean CO₂ uptake (mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹) evaluated for the historical period for all forcings (a), single radiative forcing experiments including only the effects of greenhouse gases (b) or aerosols (c) and compared with future projections following SSP2-4.5 (shown with an increased range for the radiative and thermal fluxes) (d). The maps in a–c are for a recent decade 2005–2014 relative to a decade in the pre-industrial era 1851–1860 and for d for 2091–2100 relative to 1851–1860. Diagnostics are based on model means: 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat, 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon (a); 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon (b and c); and 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon (d). Accompanying standard deviations are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3.