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Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Nature Climate Change volume 15, pages 597–609 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Climate change affects ecosystems globally, but their diversity and complexity make it difficult to estimate how severe these impacts are. Here we discuss how to conceptualize the effects of climate change on ecosystems so that they can be reliably captured in ecosystem risk assessments, focusing on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems, a headline indicator for the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We highlight key challenges and propose solutions, which include using diverse teams, conceptual models and data sources (including projections), learning from analogous ecosystems, and evaluating uncertainties. This approach will improve the capacity to produce reliable assessments of risk under climate change to inform timely and effective conservation.

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Fig. 1: Changes in the physical climate due to human-induced climate change can have cascading effects on ecosystem dynamics.
Fig. 2: Capturing climate-driven threats in a Red List assessment of alpine peatlands.
Fig. 3: Examples of different symptoms of climate change among various types of marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystem.

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Acknowledgements

This research received support from the following grants: J.A.R., A.B.T. and C.F.S. as post-docs and E.N., D.A.K., N.J.M., R.E.L., S.V., T.J.R. and J.R.F.-P. as investigators were supported by Australian Research Council Linkage Grant LP170101143; J.R.F.-P. was supported by the Ian Potter Foundation Grant ID: 21592; M.V.A was supported by the Chilean National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research (Project Grant ANID BASAL FB210015 ‘CENAMAD’); and P.P. was supported by Fondecyt 1210834.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia

    Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, Chloe F. Sato & Susanna Venn

  2. School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Jessica A. Rowland

  3. IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management, Gland, Switzerland

    Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith & Marianne V. Asmüssen

  4. School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

    Emily Nicholson & Tracey J. Regan

  5. Centre for Ecosystem Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith & Anikó B. Tóth

  6. UNSW Data Science Hub, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    José R. Ferrer-Paris

  7. College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

    Nicholas J. Murray

  8. Parks Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Chloe F. Sato

  9. The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia

    Arn Tolsma & Tracey J. Regan

  10. Centro de Ecología, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Caracas, Venezuela

    Marianne V. Asmüssen

  11. Centro Nacional de Excelencia para la Industraia de la Madera (CENAMAD – ANID BASAL), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Marianne V. Asmüssen

  12. Centro de Estudios Territoriales, Universidad de Los Andes, Santiago, Chile

    Patricio Pliscoff

  13. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Concepción, Chile

    Patricio Pliscoff

  14. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

    Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio

  15. Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, Australia

    Rebecca E. Lester

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  1. Jessica A. Rowland
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  2. Emily Nicholson
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Contributions

J.A.R. led the writing of the paper. J.A.R., T.J.R., E.N. and C.F.S. contributed to conceptualization of the paper. All authors contributed to writing the paper.

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Correspondence to Jessica A. Rowland.

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Supplementary Appendix 1 and Table 1.

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Rowland, J.A., Nicholson, E., Ferrer-Paris, J.R. et al. Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 597–609 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y

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