Fig. 3: Comparison of fair emissions allowances to NDCs and cost-optimal projections.
From: Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets
a,b, Comparison of country’s fair shares (least-stringent allocation among rules AP, ECPC and PCC) to NDCs. Positive, red values indicate countries whose NDC is insufficient (that is, higher than allocation). Negative, blue values indicate countries whose NDC is sufficient (that is, lower than allocation). Gaps originating from choosing country-optimal settings, compared to the global pathway, are annotated at the top. c,d, Similar, but compared to cost-optimal emissions projections in 2030. In the left panels, this is done on default allocation settings (1.6 °C, 50%; Supplementary Table 4); in the right panels, this is done on maximum allocation settings (the most favourable parameters and choices per country). Cost-optimal emissions are obtained from cost-optimal model runs in the IPCC AR6 scenario database37. Only scenarios that reach a maximum of 1.5 °C or have a slight temporal overshoot have been used (that is, C1 scenarios; Methods). Cost-optimal results for countries that are native model regions are shown when possible, otherwise downscaled R10 results are used (Methods). Countries with no NDC data are grey in a,b.
