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Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

Nature Climate Change volume 15, pages 809–812 (2025)Cite this article

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Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.

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Fig. 1: Opposite responses to spatial versus temporal variation in temperature have been documented in several spatial networks of tree-ring time series.
Fig. 2: Reasons why SFTS may generate misleading predictions of ecological response to climate change.
Fig. 3: A roadmap towards diversified and more reliable ecological forecasting.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Margaret E. K. Evans

  2. Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA

    Peter B. Adler & Michael Stemkovski

  3. Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA

    Peter B. Adler & Michael Stemkovski

  4. Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    Amy L. Angert

  5. Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    Amy L. Angert

  6. Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    Amy L. Angert & Jennifer L. Williams

  7. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Sharmila M. N. Dey

  8. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

    Martin P. Girardin

  9. Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

    Kelly A. Heilman & Daniel L. Perret

  10. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Stefan Klesse

  11. Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

    Dov F. Sax

  12. Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

    Dov F. Sax

  13. Department of Plant and Microbial Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA

    Seema N. Sheth

  14. Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    Jennifer L. Williams

Authors
  1. Margaret E. K. Evans
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  2. Peter B. Adler
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  3. Amy L. Angert
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  6. Kelly A. Heilman
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  7. Stefan Klesse
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  8. Daniel L. Perret
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  9. Dov F. Sax
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  10. Seema N. Sheth
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  11. Michael Stemkovski
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  12. Jennifer L. Williams
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Margaret E. K. Evans.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Evans, M.E.K., Adler, P.B., Angert, A.L. et al. Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 809–812 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

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