Extended Data Fig. 6: ET projections and attribution using the PET based on land-atmosphere coupling (PETLAC).
From: Neglecting land–atmosphere feedbacks overestimates climate-driven increases in evapotranspiration
a, Relationship between the dryness index (PETLAC/P) and the ET ratio (ET/P) with climate change. The circles represent global terrestrial mean values from 1850 to 1989, averaged across 7 models in 1pctCO2-rad. b, Global pattern of the 7-model mean correlation coefficient (r) between annual ET/P and annual PETLAC/P in 1pctCO2-rad. c, Global pattern of the difference in ET changes projected directly from the 7 models (\(\Delta\)ET) and indirectly using the Budyko framework with PETLAC and precipitation (\(\Delta\)ET_Budyko). The 7-model mean \(\Delta\)ET is computed between the first (1850-1879) and final (1960-1989) 30-year periods of 1pctCO2-rad. d, Climate-driven changes in the global mean \(\Delta\)ET projected by the 7 models and estimated using the Budyko framework (\(\Delta\)ET_Budyko) over the 140-year simulation of 1pctCO2-rad. e, Changes in the global mean \(\Delta\)ET projected by the 7 models in 1pctCO2 and the isolated contributions of climate change (\(\Delta\)ETcc, 1pctCO2-rad) and land surface changes (\(\Delta\)ETlsc, 1pctCO2 – 1pctCO2-rad). The climate change effect (\(\Delta\)ETcc_Budyko) and land surface effect (\(\Delta\)ETlsc_Budyko) estimated using the Budyko framework are also shown. The first year of each 30-year period (111 moving averages in total) is shown along the horizontal axis. The solid lines represent the 7-model means and the shading refers to one standard deviation across the 7 models in d and e. Basemap in b and c made with Natural Earth56.
