Extended Data Fig. 5: Consistency between the dryness index and the ET ratio in 1pctCO2-rad.

a, Relationship between the dryness index (PET/P) and the ET ratio (ET/P), using PET from the energy balance (PETe), the Priestley-Taylor (PETpt), the open-water Penman (PETow), the reference crop Penman-Monteith (PETrc), and the energy-only (PETeo) equations. The circles show global terrestrial mean values from 1850 to 1989 (140 years) averaged over the 7 models in 1pctCO2-rad. b, Distribution of the correlation coefficient (r) between global terrestrial mean PET/P and ET/P over the 140 years across the 7 models. The top and bottom of each box represent the first and third quartiles, the center line the median, the whiskers the data range (excluding outliers, shown as circles), and the cross the mean values across the 7 models. c, Changes in the dryness index (PET/P) and the ET ratio over land relative to the first 30-year period during the 140-year simulations (1850-1989). d, Changes in the global mean ET (\(\Delta\)ET) projected by the 7 models and estimated using the Budyko framework with 30-year mean precipitation and PETe (\(\Delta\)ET_PETe), the three Penman equations (\(\Delta\)ET_PETpt, \(\Delta\)ET_PETow, and \(\Delta\)ET_PETrc), and the energy-only equation (\(\Delta\)ET_PETeo). The first year of each 30-year period (111 moving averages in total) is shown along the horizontal axis. The solid lines show 7-model means and the shading refers to one standard deviation across the 7 models in c and d.