Extended Data Fig. 4
Selection coefficients for various demographic regimen. Right panel - Selection coefficients as a function of Mean Age at disease Onset (MAO), First Age at Onset (FAO) being 20 years earlier, in the case of different adult survival shown in the left panel: average Hunter-gatherer (squares) from 39, estimates of females of Sweden 1751 (crosses), 1800 (diamonds), 1850 (triangles) and 1900 (stars) from 40. Horizontal lines indicate the level of selection for which alleles become neutral (4.Ne.s < 1) for populations of Ne equal to 102, 103 and 104, that is, the minimum Ne for which effect of selection overcome that of genetic drift, holding that 104 is the Ne estimated at our species level. Mortality is that of a mean hunter-gatherer population and fertility that of Fig. 1b. Large increase of adult survival has little effect on the decrease in magnitudes of selection coefficients with MAO. This is because selection is always proportional on population mean and increased mortality of carriers compared to that of non-carriers within a population is not that dependent on the age-specific survival in a model where carriers may develop the disease over a large range of ages.
