Fig. 3: Change, novelty and disappearance of phytoclimates by 2070 under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5.
From: Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems
The phytoclimate of the grid cells is the suitability of the local climate for 14 plant growth forms that characterize the structure of terrestrial ecosystems. a, Local change in phytoclimate, expressed as the Euclidean distance between the ambient and future phytoclimates of a cell. b, Novelty of the projected phytoclimate in 2070, expressed as the Euclidean distance of the future phytoclimate of a cell to its closest analogue in the global pool of ambient phytoclimates. c, Risk of disappearance of the existing phytoclimate, expressed as the Euclidean distance of the ambient phytoclimate of a cell to its closest analogue in the global pool of future phytoclimates. In a–c, RCP 2.6 is shown in the left column and RCP 8.5 in the right column; the colour bars are scaled so that yellow to red colours indicate significant values of change, novelty and disappearance, respectively (see main text for the definition of the threshold value and Supplementary Figs. 4–6 for the sensitivity of the results to varying the threshold value). Values are medians across future climatologies generated by five different GCMs for each RCP.
