Fig. 5: Extinction probabilities and fitness and census population size trajectories of the simulated northern elephant seal population over time (shown in generations), starting from one generation before the bottleneck until the present day.
From: Genomic and fitness consequences of a near-extinction event in the northern elephant seal
Results are shown for different sets of 100 non-Wright–Fisher simulations that varied in the carrying capacity (K) of the population during the bottleneck. a, Extinction probabilities. b, Population fitness averaged over the 100 simulations separately for each set of simulations, as shown in the legend. c–f, Census population sizes (Nc) of the surviving simulated populations for K = 100 (c), K = 250 (d), K = 500 (e) and K = 1,000 (f) during the bottleneck. The horizontal dashed lines indicate the estimated minimum Nc of the northern elephant seal population (range = 20–100 individuals) according to Bartholomew and Hubbs27. g–j, Population growth for K = 100 (g), K = 250 (h), K = 500 (i) and K = 1,000 (j). The thick dark grey lines represent average Nc across the 100 simulations (light grey lines). The orange points (joined by orange lines) indicate empirical Nc estimates from Bartholomew and Hubbs27, Le Boeuf and Bonnell28, Stewart et al.29 and Lowry et al.30. The vertical dashed red lines indicate the onset of the bottleneck.
