Extended Data Fig. 5: Comparison of conventional growth percentiles with project announcements until 2030 for validation.
From: Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply
a, in the EU. b, globally. Both panels show the conventional growth case (like wind and solar) with five years demand pull anticipation, similar to Fig. 4. In both regions, cumulative project announcements surpass the median of the diffusion model results at all times. This is in line with the observation that the vast majority of announcements are fundamentally uncertain as they are not backed by a final investment decision yet. The comparison between the results of our probabilistic technology diffusion model and the cumulative project announcements demonstrates the plausibility of our modelling approach.
