Extended Data Fig. 6: Sensitivity analysis of probabilistic feasibility spaces for the unconventional growth case under varying demand pull anticipation levels.
From: Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply
a,c,e, EU with no anticipation, 10 years anticipation, and a hypothetical case of full anticipation of the long-term market size, respectively. b,d,f, globally. In both regions, short-term scarcity can be overcome to an even greater extent under full anticipation of the demand-pull. Notably, under unconventional growth rates and full demand pull anticipation, short-term uncertainty results as indicated by the marginal distributions in 2030. As the probabilistic feasibility space is primarily determined by the demand pull after 2030 in both regions, under full demand pull anticipation the saturation market volume is reached already around 2035 with a high probability in both regions.
