Extended Data Fig. 7: Probability distribution of electrolysis capacity in 5-year time steps between 2025-2050.

a,b,e,f,i,j, in the EU, c,d,g,h,k,l, globally. This diagram is an extension of Fig. 6c-d with additional years (2025, 2035, 2045, 2050). The left axis shows electrolysis capacity in GW, the right axis the corresponding final energy share that can be supplied with this capacity. In 2025, green hydrogen supply is minimal in terms of the final energy share in both regions and largely irrespective of the growth rate. In 2035, unconventional growth rates enable a final energy share that is almost 4 times larger than under conventional growth rates in the EU, and more than 10 times larger globally. In 2045, and even more so in 2050, the demand pull acts as the main constraint such that the differences between conventional and unconventional growth rates become smaller again.