Extended Data Fig. 1: Historical capacities and exponential growth rates of solar and wind power.

a, Solar power in the EU, b, Solar power globally, c, Wind power in the EU, d, Wind power globally. The zoom panel displays the period of fastest growth until 2010, from which we estimate exponential growth rates in 7-year slices. The percentage values indicate the corresponding growth rate for the subsequent 7-year period. These growth rates define the emergence growth rate distributions in Fig. 3c-d. To illustrate the idea of our adapted logistic technology diffusion model, we also calculate the implicit demand-pull from 2011-2020 (dotted line, 5-year rolling mean) that replicates the historically observed capacities based on the average emergence growth rate taken from the 1995-2010 interval (see Eq. 5). The approximately linear shape of the implicit demand pull demonstrates that this is a well-founded assumption, which we therefore also apply to the analysis of electrolysis capacity upscaling.