Table 1 Parameters for equations (1)–(9) describing Russia’s oil income

Demand elasticity of road fuel in the EU with respect to price

\(\tilde\varepsilon_{D, {\mathrm {EU}}}\)

−0.25

−0.25

−0.9

See Methods

Demand elasticity of oil globally (excluding EU road fuel) with respect to price

ε_D,ROW

−0.125

−0.125

−0.45

See Methods

Supply elasticity of Russian oil with respect to price

ε_S,RU

0

0

0.13

See Methods

Supply elasticity of global oil (excluding Russia) with respect to price

ε_S,ROW

0

0

0.13

See Methods

Demand elasticity of road fuel in EU with respect to income

ε_I,EU

1

1

1

Ref. ¹⁵

Base fuel excise tax in the EU (€ l⁻¹)

τ

0.55

0.55

0.55

Weighted average of all countries’ taxes; see Methods

Base oil price per litre of fuel (€ l⁻¹)

p

0.58

0.58

0.58

Oil price = $110 per barrel; foreign exchange rate = €0.9 per $; 170 l fuel per barrel

Other costs, such as refining (€ l⁻¹)

c

0.45

0.45

0.45

Follows from p + τ + c; see Methods

VAT rate

v_EU

0.2

0.2

0.2

Base consumer price excluding VAT (€ l⁻¹)

p + τ + c

1.58

1.58

1.58

Sum of oil price, fuel tax and other costs; see Methods

Oil extraction cost in Russia (€ per barrel)

e

17

17l

17

Rystad UCube database¹⁴

EU road fuel demand share of global oil consumption (%)

x

48

5.7

5.7

Refs. ^31,32

Russian oil exports per day (million litres of fuel; million barrels of oil)

S_RU

540; 3.2

1,200; 7

1,400; 8

IEA³⁸ and case assumptions; see Methods

Global oil supply, excluding Russian exports, per day (million litres of fuel; million barrels of oil)

S_ROW

13,000; 7.6

16,000; 92

16,000; 92

Follows from S_RU,S

Road fuel demand in the EU per day (million litres of fuel; million barrels of oil)

D_EU

870; 5.1

960; 5.6

970; 5.7

Follows from x, D

Global oil demand, excluding EU road fuel demand, per day (million litres of fuel; million barrels of oil)

D_ROW

950; 5.6

16,000; 93.4

16,000; 94.3

Follows from x, D

Russia’s exports as a share of the global supply (%)

y

29

7

8

Follows from S_RU,S