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Implications of intercontinental renewable electricity trade for energy systems and emissions

Nature Energy volume 7, pages 1144–1156 (2022)Cite this article

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An Author Correction to this article was published on 06 November 2023

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Abstract

A rapid global energy transition, including the ramping up of electricity generation from renewables, is needed to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C. However, renewable resource endowments vary widely between regions, and renewable electricity is currently mainly used locally. Here we use a global integrated assessment model to explore the implications of renewable electricity trade via a set of planned direct-current-type ultra-high-voltage (UHVDC) transmission lines for global energy transition and climate change. We find that renewable electricity trade across large world regions via the underlying UHVDC interconnection can boost renewable electricity production and reduce 2020–2100 cumulative CO2 emissions from the power sector up to 9.8%. Financial investments in the UHVDC lines are offset in the long term by reduced investments in other electricity-generation options, including nuclear and storage. Finally, we find that renewable electricity trade can substantially reduce air pollutant emissions in importing regions.

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Fig. 1: Supply curves for solar PV and onshore wind in 2050 in different importing regions combined with the planned UHVDC lines.
Fig. 2: Renewable electricity trade across large world regions under scenarios with different assumptions of interconnection type, renewable cost and climate policy.
Fig. 3: Electricity trade, renewable electricity generation and CO2 emissions under various scenarios.
Fig. 4: Changes of investment in energy-supply sector with renewable electricity trade.
Fig. 5: Changes of investment breakdown in the electricity sector.
Fig. 6: Impacts of renewable electricity trade across large world regions on regional power-generation mix.
Fig. 7: Impacts of renewable electricity trade across large world regions in South Asia on the region’s CO2, NOx and SOx emissions.

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Data availability

All scenarios used in this paper are available in the online database https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/gei.

Code availability

The code of the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model is open source and available at https://github.com/iiasa/message_ix; the model documentation is available at https://docs.messageix.org/projects/global/en/latest/.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the financial contribution from the project ‘Research on development modes and quantitative assessment of carbon-based resources in life cycle to achieving global carbon neutrality’ (No.SGGEIG00JYJS2200051) to this research. We thank A. Islaam (IIASA) for designing Fig. 1.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Fei Guo, Bas J. van Ruijven, Behnam Zakeri, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi

  2. Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO), Beijing, China

    Shining Zhang, Xing Chen, Changyi Liu, Fang Yang, Han Huang & Yuanbing Zhou

  3. Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol) and Energy Transitions Initiative, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway

    Volker Krey

  4. Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria

    Keywan Riahi

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Contributions

F.G. and B.J.v.R. conceived the research, carried out the analyses and analysed the results. X.C. analysed techno-economic parameterizations of global UHV lines. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript and developing the figures.

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Correspondence to Bas J. van Ruijven.

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Competing interests

The authors declare the following competing interests: this research has been funded by the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO), which explores the potential for a global UHV network. S.Z., X.C., C.L., F.Y., H.H. and Y.Z. are employed by the funder of this research and contributed to the preparation of the manuscript. The remaining authors declare no competing interests.

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Guo, F., van Ruijven, B.J., Zakeri, B. et al. Implications of intercontinental renewable electricity trade for energy systems and emissions. Nat Energy 7, 1144–1156 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01136-0

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