Extended Data Fig. 6: Renewable energy Energy Return On Investment (EROI) equivalent assuming the use of heat pumps.

Final-stage Energy Return On Investment (EROI) equivalent (that is, the value above which renewable energy systems would deliver more net useful energy than fossil fuels) calculated for 2020 at the global level under the assumption that heat pumps will substitute low and medium (up to 100∘C) heating processes, except cooking. Renewable energy EROIs reported in the literature are displayed alongside. a, Economy-wide, and b, by relevant end-use category (low and medium-temperature heating). The results for the remaining end-use categories do not change. Dark shades correspond to the EROI equivalent when indirect energy requirements are included in fossil fuels’ EROI calculations. Light shades correspond to the EROI equivalent when indirect energy requirements are excluded. Calculations consist of a weighted average of fossil fuels used as fuels, electricity, and heat.