Table 1 Societal factors included in the model one by one and in combination

Infrastructure dynamics

Lock-in (L)

Power capacity lifetime is extended by up to 10 (20; 30) years after the end of technical lifetime if this capacity is economically profitable to keep using in the future at the same utilization rate.

Fast transition (T)

Existing capacity is retired before the end of the technical lifetime if it is economically profitable to build and use alternative technologies at the same utilization rate. This capacity that is retired earlier for each technology is limited annually to 2% (5%; 10%) of the total installed capacity.

Actors and decision-making

Actor heterogeneity (A)

Lower cost sensitivity is assumed for investment choices²⁴. Between two available technologies, a cost saving of 20% results in a 75% (60%; 90%) market share instead of 100%.

Investment risks (I)

Different weighted average costs of capital are used per country and technology⁷⁰.

Social and institutional context

Public acceptance (P)

Incumbent technologies and wind power capacity cannot be built when more than 60% (50%; 70%) of the population has a negative perception of them⁶². For wind power, the local acceptance is assumed to be 35% lower than overall public acceptance to represent disamenity costs^17,64. Wind and solar power investment costs are reduced by 20% if more than 80% of the population has a positive perception of these technologies.

Governance (G)

The combination of electricity market liberalization and state-owned utilities facilitates the emergence of renewable technologies^39,40. When entry barriers are low and public ownership is high, a 20% (10%; 30%) decrease in renewable investment costs is assumed. Conversely, when entry barriers are high and public ownership is low, a 20% (10%; 30%) increase in investment costs is assumed.