Fig. 4: LIG, present and future Mediterranean SST, their decadal SST rate of change and centennial SST trends.
From: Last Interglacial decadal sea surface temperature variability in the eastern Mediterranean
a,b, Observational and projected SST of the eastern Mediterranean for the period from 1860 to 2099 (splice of ERSST34 observational data and CESM1.2 model projections under the RCP8.5 (a) and RCP4.5 (b) scenarios; model projections are highlighted by grey background). c, Reconstructed alkenone-based SST of the eastern Mediterranean during the period of sapropel S5 formation (grey area marks non-varved part of the sapropel; see Extended Data Fig. 1 for data uncertainty). Red and orange dashed lines indicate the maximal projected SST for the twenty-first century under RCP8.5 (25.1 °C) and RCP4.5 (23.4 °C) scenarios, respectively, while the dashed grey line indicates the average ERSST34 for the period from 1860 to 2020 (20.5 °C). d,e, Decadal rate of SST change for the period from 1860 to 2099 under the RCP8.5 (d) and RCP4.5 (e) scenarios. f, Decadal rate of SST change for the period of sapropel S5 deposition (see Extended Data Fig. 8 for data uncertainty). Red dashed line indicates the maximal projected decadal rate of SST change in the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario (0.48 °C per decade), and orange dashed line indicates 0.40 °C per decade wich is the same values of maximal projected decadal rate of SST change in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario and maximal decadal SST rate of change from 1860 to 2020. g,h, Observational and projected centennial SST changes for the period from 1860 to 2099 under the RCP8.5 (g) and RCP4.5 (h) scenarios. i, Reconstructed centennial SST changes for the period of sapropel S5 deposition (see Extended Data Fig. 8 for data uncertainty). Red and orange dashed lines indicate the maximal centennial SST change in the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 (4.3 °C per century) and RCP4.5 scenarios (2.8 °C per century), respectively, while the dashed grey line indicates SST warming of the last century (1920–2019; 0.68 °C per century). Warming and cooling trends are indicated with red and blue colours, respectively.
