Extended Data Fig. 1: Ocean heat budget.

a Annual mean anomalous ocean heat content evolution in ESM-fw for the full ocean depth (black), top 800 m depth (red) and below 800 m depth (orange). Solid lines indicate 4-member ensemble mean and banding indicates ensemble range. b,e Anomalous heat transport rate, c,f anomalous ocean heat uptake rate (methods; negative values indicate ocean heat loss to the atmosphere) and d,g tendencies in ocean heat content in ESM-fw and OM-fw experiment, respectively. Analyses in b-g were performed on the first 50 years of the respective simulations. Stippling indicates regions where all 4 members agree on the sign of change in the ESM-fw ensemble (P < 0.05; methods). Basemaps in b–g created with Cartopy.