Extended Data Fig. 2: Distributions of DHM vs DHW heat stress values (°C weeks) at the Great Barrier Reef under the MIROC5 climate model, over the 2001–2020 period.
From: Coral bleaching and mortality overestimated in projections based on Degree Heating Months
DHW predictions displayed a long tail compared to DHM and the modes of the component of each distribution above 5 °C weeks were not concordant. The widely-used predictive criteria for substantial bleaching (≥4 °C weeks but <8 °C weeks) and for severe bleaching with substantial mortality (≥8 °C weeks) are shown by the shaded areas. 2,014 reefs were analysed. DHM was standardised to a weekly basis through multiplication by four.
