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North Pacific response to warming sustains drought in the Southwest US

Proxy–model comparisons from the mid-Holocene and ensemble projections of future warming reveal that Northern-Hemisphere warming repeatedly forces the Pacific Decadal Oscillation into a persistent negative phase. This forced North Pacific response stifles winter storms, pointing to a persistent warming-driven drought risk in the Southwest US.

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Fig. 1: Models and proxies show North Pacific-driven hydroclimate change.

References

  1. Williams, A. P., Cook, B. I. & Smerdon, J. E. Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 232–234 (2022). This paper reports current droughts in the context of the palaeorecord.

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This is a summary of: Todd, V. L. et al. North Pacific ocean–atmosphere responses to Holocene and future warming drive Southwest US drought. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01726-z (2025).

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North Pacific response to warming sustains drought in the Southwest US. Nat. Geosci. 18, 576–577 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01727-y

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