Extended Data Fig. 5: Analytical approximation of the simulation results.
From: Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing
The probability of MT takeover before herd immunity is reached can be calculated according to equation 5. We observe a good agreement between our calculations and the results of the stochastic simulations. (A) (C) Each square of the color map is colored according to the probability of take over calculated with equation (5). (B) (D) Each square of the color map is colored according to the proportion of runs (out of n=1000) where the MT strain took over. The population size was N = 106. Parameters: a = 0.25; d = 0.01; μ = 10−6; s0 = 0.1; β1 = β2 = 7.5 ∙ 10−7.
