Extended Data Fig. 6: Counterintuitive effect of the vaccination rate on the probability of resistance.
From: Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing
Increasing the population size N, the mutation rate µ and the infection rate l all increase the probability of generating a mutant before herd immunity is reached (B and C). We define v = c/N and l = L/N. Increasing the vaccination rate v leads to a counterintuitive effect: the probability for a fixed time increases with v since it leads to faster relaxation of social distancing measures, but it also leads to faster achievement of herd immunity (A). Hence the probability of resistance until herd immunity decreases with v (F). Parameter values: μ = 10−7 (A): N = 108, l = 200 ∙ 10−6; (B): l = 200 ∙ 10−6, v = 1000 ∙ 10−6, (C)(E): N = 108, v = 1000 ∙ 10−6; (D)(F): N = 108, l = 200 ∙ 10−6.
