Fig. 3: Probability of emergence of resistance.
From: Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing
a–d, For each square of the colour maps, the proportion of runs (out of 1,000 runs) where the number of individuals infected with the MT strain exceeded the number of individuals infected with the WT strain is recorded. All simulations are run for a population size of N = 106 and then scaled to obtain the results shown for N = 107. The results for b and d were scaled according to 1 − (1 − p)10, where p is the proportion of runs where the MT strain took over. We observe a triangular shape of (L, c) parameter sets for which the MT strain takes over, indicating that high vaccination rates can be safely associated with more lenient social distancing measures. However, very slow vaccination cannot be compensated by any strength of social distancing. Partial immunity to the MT strain (c and d) does not affect the shape of the parameter space where we observe MT takeover but does reduce its probability. Parameters: a = 0.25; d = 0.01; μ = 10−6; s0 = 0.1; β1 = β2 = 7.5 × 10−7.
