Table 2 Calculated probability of emergence of vaccine resistance using real-world data from six countries: Brazil, France, Germany, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States

From: Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing

Country

Population size (×106)

Average rate of infection per day per person before vaccine rollout started (×106)

Average rate of infection per day per person after vaccine rollout started (×106)

Average rate of vaccination per day per person (×106)

Probability of resistance (×106)

Brazil

212.6

126

201

4,822

0.262

France

68.1

140

236

4,582

0.186

Germany

83.8

59

153

4,336

0.151

Israel

8.7

157

323

5,391

0.052

United Kingdom

67.9

104

352

5,146

0.364

United States

331.0

191

275

3,964

0.745

  1. The probability of vaccine resistance was calculated using the product formula in equation (2) and the data presented in Fig. 5 assuming μ = 10−7.
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