Fig. 4: Replication results based on the small-telescopes approach (a secondary replication indicator).

Plotted are the 90% CIs of replication effect sizes in relation to small-effect sizes as defined by the small-telescopes approach¹¹² (the effect size that the original study would have had 33% power to detect). Studies within the three panels (top-12, random, bottom-12) are sorted based on the decision market prices as in Fig. 1. A study is defined as failing to replicate if the 90% CI is below the small effect (with ‘ub’ denoting the upper bound of the 90% CI). According to the small-telescopes approach, 15 out of 26 studies (57.7%; 95% CI (36.9%, 76.6%)) replicate. The error bars denote the 90% CIs of the estimated replication effect sizes. The numbers of observations used to estimate the 90% CIs are the replication sample sizes noted on the right as n_R.