Fig. 3: Within-participant dynamics of ESBL-E colonization.

a,b, Proportion of participants who, at time 0 have detectable ESBL-producing E. coli (a) or KpSC (b) who remain colonized as a function of time. Horizontal dotted lines in each panel show the baseline proportion for the dataset of between-participant samples that contain the same genus. c,d, Proportion of participants with detectable ESBL-producing E. coli (c) or KpSC (d) at time 0, who remain colonized with the same contig-cluster, popPUNK-cluster or an isolate of SNP distance ≤5 as a function of time with dotted lines showing the baseline (between-participant) proportion, as above. e,f, Odds ratio from logistic regression with 95% CIs of within-participant sample pairs containing the same popPUNK-cluster alone, contig-cluster alone or both, compared to between-participant pairs for E. coli (e) and KpSC (f) showing that the element that is most likely to be conserved is the popPUNK-cluster contig-cluster combination. This analysis (e,f) uses the sample pair as the unit of analysis so each sample may be included more than once.