Extended Data Fig. 4: D29 antibody marker level in participants in South Africa by COVID-19 outcome status.

(A) Anti-spike IgG concentration, (B) anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG concentration, and (C) pseudovirus (PsV) neutralization ID50 titer. Data points are from the South Africa subgroup of baseline SARS-CoV-2 seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients in the set [(A-C): N = 15 cases, 200 non-cases]. The violin plots contain interior box plots with upper and lower horizontal edges the 25th and 75th percentiles of antibody level and middle line the 50th percentile, and vertical bars the distance from the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level and the minimum (or maximum) antibody level within the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level minus (or plus) 1.5 times the interquartile range. Each side shows a rotated probability density (estimated by a kernel density estimator with a default Gaussian kernel) of the data. Positive response rates were computed with inverse probability of sampling weighting. Pos.Cut, Positivity cut-off. Positive response for spike IgG was defined by IgG > 10.8424 BAU/ml and for RBD IgG was defined by IgG > 14.0858 BAU/ml. ULoQ, upper limit of quantitation. ULoQ = 238.1165 BAU/ml for spike IgG and 172.5755 BAU/ml for RBD IgG. LLoQ, lower limit of quantitation. Positive response for ID50 was defined by value > LLoQ (2.7426 IU50/ml). ULoQ = 619.3052 IU50/ml for ID50. Cases are baseline SARS-CoV-2 seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients with the primary COVID-19 endpoint (moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 with onset both ≥ 1 day post D29 and ≥ 28 days post-vaccination) up to 54 days post D29 but no later than January 22, 2021.

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