Extended Data Fig. 6: Modelled Environmental Variables Affecting Prochlorococcus Division Rate.
From: Future ocean warming may cause large reductions in Prochlorococcus biomass and productivity
Temperature and nutrient supply to the sunlit layers of the ocean are two key environmental factors influencing phytoplankton division rates. a, c, e, g, i. Temperature (°C) in the upper 10 m for pre-industrial conditions (a) and the 10-year average from 2090-2100 under moderate (c) and high warming scenario (e), with a black contour indicating 28 °C, a critical temperature for Prochlorococcus. Change in temperature (°C) between these periods (positive = warming) (g, i). b, d, f, h, j. Physical supply rate of nitrate to the upper 50 m (mol N m−2 y−1) under pre-industrial conditions (b) and future scenarios (d, f). Change in supply rate between these periods (negative = decreasing supply rate in the future) (h, j). Nutrient supply rates include lateral and vertical advection and mixing (metabolic simulations). In the tropics and subtropics, macronutrient supply decreases due to increased stratification and circulation changes. In polar regions, reduced sea ice leads to deeper mixing and increased nutrient supply. In some temperate waters, increased biological rates and nutrient trapping allow for higher supply rates in the future.
