Extended Data Table 5 Effect of SPRUCE warming treatments on observed vegetative and reproductive phenological transitions (2017)

From: Ecosystem warming extends vegetation activity but heightens vulnerability to cold temperatures

  1. Data are from the 2017 growing season, based on observations across n = 12 plots. Species are ordered alphabetically, and within each species, phenophases are ordered according to the mean ( ± 1 s.d.) day of year (DOY) on which the event occurred. Statistics for the linear temperature model are based on regression of transition date (y) on warming treatment (x), and the model slope is the phenological temperature sensitivity in days per 1 °C warming. The ‘T effect’ column reports the P value for the null hypothesis of no temperature effect. Statistics for the breakpoint temperature model are based on a model in which the response to warming treatment is assumed to be linear up to a temperature threshold t*, and flat thereafter (see Methods for additional details). No statistics are reported for cases in which a t* could not be identified, or where the addition of t* did not improve model fit. ΔAICC is the difference in AIC (corrected for small sample sizes) between the linear temperature model and breakpoint temperature model, with a positive value indicating that the linear temperature model is better supported by the data, and a negative value indicating that the breakpoint temperature model is better supported by the data. RMSE, root mean squared error. SE, standard error. Results not shown for the linear temperature and CO2 model as the CO2 effect and CO2 × T interaction effect were generally not significant (see Supplementary Note 5 for additional information).
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