Extended Data Fig. 9: Relationship between SST warming and change in E-index for selected models.

a, Multi-model-mean warming pattern (in °C per °C of global warming (GW); colour scale). First, for each model we construct a warming pattern by calculating the difference between the average SST anomalies over the future (2000–2099) and present-day (1900–1999) periods. Second, we scale this difference by the increase in global-mean SST simulated by the model over the corresponding period. Finally, we take the mean of the scaled difference over all models to construct the multi-model-mean warming pattern. b, Inter-model relationship between the intensity of the SST warming pattern (a) and change in E-index, also scaled by the corresponding increase in global-mean SST in each model. The intensity of the scaled SST warming pattern for each model is obtained by regressing the scaled SST warming pattern for each model onto the scaled multi-model-mean SST warming pattern, using the region indicated by the black box in a. The inter-model relationship is statistically significant above the 95% confidence level, with the statistical properties shown.