Extended Data Fig. 9: Lake thermal responses to climate change.

Here we show the percentage of studied lakes which are projected to experience annual ice cover (a), and experience a permanent heatwave state (b) during the twenty-first century (RCP 8.5). In b, percentages are calculated relative to the number of lakes studied that are projected not to experience annual ice cover by 2070–2099. In c we show a temporally varying (1-year shifting window) 30-year climatological mean, with temperatures plotted as anomalies relative to the historical climatological mean (1970 to 1999). We also demonstrate the future projections of lake heatwave annual average intensity (d), annual average duration (e) and total duration (f) during the twenty-first century (RCP 8.5) calculated after linearly detrending the lake surface temperature anomalies. All results are based on the average simulations from the lake model driven by the four climate models; the shaded regions represent the standard deviation and the dashed lines represent the range across the lake-climate model ensembles.