Extended Data Fig. 6: Estimated infection or hospitalization growth rates with actual anti-contagion policies and in a no-policy counterfactual scenario.
From: The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
a, The estimated daily growth rates of active (China and South Korea) or cumulative (all others) infections based on the observed timing of all policy deployments within each subnational unit (blue) and in a scenario in which no policies were deployed (red). Identical to Fig. 3, but using an alternative disaggregated encoding of policies that does not group any policies into policy packages. The sample size is 3,669 in China, 595 in South Korea, 2,898 in Italy, 548 in Iran, 270 in France and 1,238 in the United States. b, Same as Fig. 3, but equation (7) is implemented for a single example administrative unit: Wuhan, China. The sample size is 46 observations. c, Same as Fig. 3, but using hospitalization data from France rather than cumulative cases (the French government stopped reporting cumulative cases after 25 March 2020). The sample size is 424 observations. For all panels, the difference between the with- and no-policy predictions is our estimated effect of actual anti-contagion policies on the growth rate of infections (or hospitalizations). The markers are daily estimates for each subnational administrative unit (vertical lines are 95% confidence intervals). Black circles are observed changes in log(infections) (or diamonds for log(hospitalizations)), averaged across observed administrative units.
