Extended Data Fig. 9: Simulating reduced-form estimates for anti-contagion policy effects for different population regimes and assumed disease dynamics.
From: The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
Same as Extended Data Fig. 8, but estimates are for the combined effect of three different policies (analogous to Fig. 2b) that are deployed at random moments in time. a, Simulations in near-ideal data conditions in which we observe active infections within a large population (such that the susceptible fraction of the population remains high during the sample period, similar to those in our data for Chongqing, China). b, Simulations in a non-ideal data scenario in which we are only able to observe cumulative infections in a small population (similar to those in our sample for Cremona, Italy).
