Fig. 2: Empirical estimates of unmitigated COVID-19 infection growth rates and the effect of anti-contagion policies.
From: The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
Markers are country-specific estimates, whiskers show the 95% confidence interval. Columns report effect sizes as a change in the continuous-time growth rate (95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses) and the day-over-day percentage growth rate. a, Estimates of daily COVID-19 infection growth rates in the absence of policy (dashed lines, averages with and without Iran, both excluding the Wuhan-specific estimate). b, Estimated combined effect of all policies on infection growth rates. c, Estimated effects of individual policies or policy groups on the daily growth rate of infections, jointly estimated and ordered roughly chronologically within each country. The asterisks indicate that the reported effect of ‘home isolation’ includes effects of other implied policies (see Methods). WFH denotes work from home policy. China, n = 3,669; South Korea, n = 595; Italy, n = 2,898; Iran, n = 548; France, n = 270; United States, n = 1,238.
