Fig. 4: Estimated cumulative confirmed COVID-19 infections with and without anti-contagion policies.
From: The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
The predicted cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections based on actual policy deployments (blue) and in the no-policy counterfactual scenario (red). Shaded areas show uncertainty based on 1,000 simulations for which empirically estimated parameters are resampled from their joint distribution (dark, inner 70% of predictions; light, inner 95%). Black dotted line is observed cumulative infections. Infections are not projected for administrative units that never report infections in the sample, but which might have experienced infections in a no-policy scenario.
