Fig. 1: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt for France, Italy, Spain and the UK.
From: Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
Left, daily number of infections. Brown bars are reported infections; blue bands are predicted infections; dark blue, 50% credible interval; light blue 95% credible interval. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if Rt is above 1, the number of infections will start growing again. Middle, daily number of deaths. Brown bars are reported deaths; blue bands are predicted deaths; credible intervals are as in the left plot. Right, Rt. Dark green, 50% credible interval; light green, 95% credible interval. Icons are interventions, shown at the time at which they occurred.
