Extended Data Fig. 1: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and R_t for Belgium, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland.

Left, daily number of infections. Brown bars are reported infections; blue bands are predicted infections; dark blue, 50% credible interval; light blue, 95% credible interval. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if R_t is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle, daily number of deaths. Brown bars are reported deaths; blue bands are predicted deaths; credible intervals are as in the left plot. Right, R_t. Dark green, 50% credible interval; light green, 95% credible interval. Icons are interventions, shown at the time at which they occurred.