Extended Data Fig. 2: Effect of NAO matching on trends during the increasing-NAO period.
From: North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
a–c, Observed linear trends over hindcast start dates of 1973–1989, inclusive, for temperature (a), precipitation (b) and mean sea-level pressure (c). d–f, As in a–c, but for raw lagged ensemble-mean forecasts. g–i, As in d–f, but standardized by the standard deviation of ensemble-mean 8-yr means. j–l, As in d–f, but for NAO-matched forecasts. Units are standard deviations of 8-yr means per decade. The raw lagged ensemble (d–f) is divided by the observed standard deviation of 8-yr means to show the signal relative to the observed variability. NAO matching clearly improves the cooling trend over the Labrador Sea and the warming trend over Eurasia, as well as the drying (wetting) trends over southern (northern) Europe.
