Fig. 4: Infection fatality patterns among individuals who are 60 years and older.

a, Difference between the reported and expected incidence of COVID-19-associated deaths per 100,000 individuals in the population among individuals who are ≥60 or ≥65 years of age in each country. Coloured bars represent the median difference and black lines represent 95% credible intervals. Countries labelled with an asterisk indicate those for which the number of deaths was reconstructed for ages 65+ years, to align with the reported age groups for each country (n = 429,039 reported deaths 60 or 65+ years of age). b, Population-weighted IFRs for the general population and residents of nursing homes, using France as a reference population (n = 10,560 reported deaths among residents of nursing homes and n = 20,528 among the general population). The relative frailty of residents of nursing homes is assumed to be 2 (yellow), 3.8 (green) or 6 (blue). Dots and lines indicate the median and 95% credible intervals estimated by the ensemble model. c, Population-weighted IFR in France, estimated with different assumed infection attack rates and frailty of residents of nursing homes relative to those of the same age and sex in the general population. Coloured ribbons indicate 95% credible intervals and the black dashed line represents the median population-weighted IFR estimated when assuming a zero infection attack rate among residents of nursing homes (n = 10,560 reported deaths among residents of nursing homes and n = 20,528 among the general population).