Fig. 1: Inferred intervention effect sizes.

The x axis shows the relative reduction in transmission. Rows show model predictions for our published model (Flaxman et al.²), the model from Soltesz et al.¹ (full pool), a generalized version of our published model (partial pool) and fits to individual countries (reported in supplementary discussion 8 of our original paper²; the model is the same one considered by Soltesz et al.¹). We also include the mean effect size derived from a meta-analysis (mean across countries for each individual sample) of the individual country effects.