Extended Data Fig. 2: RCP8.5 ensembles calibrated with alternative GRACE estimates.
From: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica
a, b, The fan charts show the time-evolving uncertainty and range around the median ensemble value (black line) in 10% increments. RCP8.5 ice-sheet model ensembles calibrated with GRACE estimates of annual mass change averaged from 2002–2017 using alternative GIA corrections (Methods). Use of GIA corrections produces estimates of mass loss between 2002 and 2017 of 0.2–0.54 mm yr−1 (a) and 0.39–0.53 mm yr−1 (b). The more restrictive and higher range of GRACE estimates in b skews the distribution and shifts the ensemble median values of GMSL upwards from 27 cm to 30 cm in 2100 and from 4.44 m to 4.94 m in 2200.
