Extended Data Fig. 5: Future retreat of Thwaites Glacier (TG) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG) with +3 °C global warming.
From: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica
The Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet in a nested, high-resolution (1 km) simulation using average calibrated values of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff calving parameters (CALVLIQ = 107 m−1 yr2; VCLIF = 7.7 km yr−1), consistent with those used in CESM1.2.2-forced simulations (Fig. 1h) and CDR simulations (Fig. 3, Table 1). a–c, The ice sheet in 2050. d–f, The ice sheet in 2100. a, d, Ice-sheet geometry and annually averaged ice-cliff calving rates at thick, weakly buttressed grounding lines. The solid line in all panels is the grounding line and the dashed line is its initial position. Note that simulated ice-cliff calving rates are generally much slower than the maximum allowable value of 7.7 km yr−1. Ice shelves downstream of calving ice cliffs are the equivalent of weak mélange, incapable of stopping calving64. b, e, Ice surface speed showing streaming and fast flow just upstream of calving ice cliffs where driving stresses are greatest. c, f, Change in ice thickness relative to the initial state. g, GMSL contributions within the nested domain at model spatial resolutions spanning 1–10 km.
