Extended Data Table 2 Antarctic sea-level contributions with alternative maximum ice-cliff calving rates

From: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

  1. Ensemble median GMSL contributions using IMBIE, LIG and Pliocene observational constraints (in metres) relative to 2000. Values in parentheses are the 17th–83rd percentiles (likely range). Scenarios refer to the maximum global mean temperature reached relative to pre-industrial (1850) or following extended RCPs, and with the upper bound of the ice-cliff calving parameter (VCLIFF) set at the maximum observed value of 13 km yr−1 (n = 196; Table 1), or alternatively at 11 km yr−1 (n = 168) or 8 km yr−1 (n = 126). Reducing the upper bound of the ice-cliff calving parameter has a relatively small impact on ensemble medians, especially in the near term. The average calibrated value of VCLIFF constrained by observational constraints is 7.7 km yr−1, which severely truncates the upper tail of the distributions when using 8 km yr−1 as the sampling limit.
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