Extended Data Fig. 4: Continuous ctDNA metrics and association with clinical outcome within ctDNA(+) patients.

Only the observation arm ctDNA(+) patients are shown to demonstrate the prognostic value of baseline ctDNA. a, Scatter plot showing ctDNA concentration as measured by sample mean tumor molecules per mL of plasma (sample MTM/ml) versus DFS in months. The solid points indicate an event, and the empty points indicate censoring. b, Kaplan–Meier plot for DFS comparing patients with high ctDNA concentrations (dark red, greater than or equal to median sample MTM/ml) versus low ctDNA levels (light red, less than the median sample MTM/ml). c, Forest plot for DFS comparing patients with high versus low ctDNA levels using different quantile thresholds for splitting sample MTM/ml, including 10%, 25%, 50% (median), 75% and 90% quantiles. d, Scatter plot showing OS in months (x axis) versus ctDNA concentration as measured by sample MTM/ml. The solid points indicate an event, and the empty points indicate censoring. e, Kaplan–Meier plot for OS comparing patients with high ctDNA concentrations (dark red, greater than or equal to median sample MTM/ml) versus low ctDNA concentrations (light red, less than the median sample MTM/ml). f, Forest plot for OS comparing patients with high versus low ctDNA concentrations using different quantile thresholds for splitting ctDNA sample MTM/ml, including 10%, 25%, 50% (median), 75% and 90% quantiles. Forest plots show HRs for recurrence or death estimated using a univariable Cox proportional-hazards model, and 95% confidence intervals of HRs are represented by horizontal bars.