Extended Data Fig. 6: Rescaled predictions by the import model match observed frequency trajectories.
From: Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020
In most countries, observations of 20E (EU1) increased in July 2020 and reached a plateau or a slower increase by October 2020. Predictions by the import model need to be scaled by a factor between 1.2 and 12 (see legends in individual plots) to match the observed frequencies (see main text for discussion). Fluctuations on short time scales in the observed frequency of 20E (EU1) are probably due to sampling and the dynamics of local outbreaks. Observed frequencies are subject to variable reporting delays.
