Extended Data Fig. 3: Sample overlap between present and future.
From: Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption
The density plots demonstrate the overlap in the joint income × long-run climate distributions at 2010 and 2090. Long-run climate is measured by heating degree days (a) and cooling degree days (b). Distributions are for 24,378 impact regions, in 2010 (grey-black) and 2090 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and SSP3 socioeconomic scenario (red-orange). All impact regions within a country are assigned the national per capita income. Although the future distribution is shifted towards higher incomes, greater cooling degree days, and fewer heating degree days, the substantial overlap in the two distributions allows for credible extrapolation of energy-temperature responses into the future (‘Projecting the impacts of climate change’ in Methods).
