Extended Data Fig. 4: Inference results from a modified version of the transmission model permitting movement of documented infections among counties.

(a) 25% of documented infections are allowed to move among counties. (b) 50% of documented infections are allowed to move among counties. Fitting to case data (top two rows), estimated monthly ascertainment rate (middle two rows) and population susceptibility (bottom two rows) are shown. Distributions are obtained from n = 100 ensemble members. In the top two and bottom two rows, the solid line represents the median, and the dash lines show 95% CIs. In the middle two rows, the centre and box bounds represent the median, 25th, and 75th percentiles, and the whiskers show 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles.